منابع مشابه
Natural Expectations and Macroeconomic Fluctuations.
The Harvard community has made this article openly available. Please share how this access benefits you. Your story matters. In recent decades, research in economics and finance has largely focused on the rational actor model, in which economic agents process all available information perfectly. In contrast to an older perspective represented by Keynes and Pigou, the rational model rules out un...
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Companies’ realized earnings depend on overall economic conditions. Market participants should therfore adjust their earnings expectations to surprising macroeconomic news. However, despite its importance for asset pricing models, thus far, empirical research was not able to provide clear-cut evidence of a link between earnings expectations and economic news. Based on a detailed analysis of the...
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This paper reviews a variety of alternative approaches to the specification of the expectations of economic decisionmakers in dynamic models, and reconsiders familiar results in the theory of monetary and fiscal policy when one allows for departures from the hypothesis of rational expectations. The various approaches are all illustrated in the context of a common model, a log-linearized New Key...
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We examine global economic dynamics under infinite-horizon learning in a New Keynesian model in which the interest-rate rule is subject to the zero lower bound. As in Evans, Guse and Honkapohja (2008), we find that under normal monetary and fiscal policy the intended steady state is locally but not globally stable. Unstable deflationary paths can arise after large pessimistic shocks to expectat...
متن کاملMisperceptions, heterogeneous expectations and macroeconomic dynamics
We investigate the extent to which misperceptions about the economy can become self reinforcing and thereby contribute to time-varying macroeconomic dynamics. To do so, we build a New Keynesian model with long-horizon expectations and dynamic predictor selection. Because agents solve multiperiod optimisation problems (households maximise expected lifetime utility and rms maximise the discounte...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: American Economic Review
سال: 2020
ISSN: 0002-8282
DOI: 10.1257/aer.20181219